Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category:
Global warming in the UK – not
This is amazing:
More info can be found in this story:
“Snow Covers Britain From Head to Toe”
If Algore showed up in London today, they’d probably boot him out of the country permanently.
BRRRR!
Man, do we have a buttload of global warming out there now, or what? The temp right now here at the homestead is 10ºF. Forecast low for tonight is +5ºF. I was just reading the forecast discussion from the NWS, and they said:
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HI-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE H500 TROF PERSISTING OVER
ERN NOAM THRU THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FA IN A MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORM OF AN INITIALLY 1044MB HI PRES. THIS WILL BE
EVERY BIT AS COLD AS THE LAST ONE...IF NOT COLDER. IN ADDITION...IF
THIS SNOW FORECAST VERIFIES FOR MID WEEK LIKE WE CURRENTLY ARE
THINKING...THE ADDITION OF FAIRLY DEEP SNOW COVER OF MUCH...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE FA WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE ABILITY TO RADIATIVELY COOL.
KSTL HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW ZERO SINCE JANUARY 1999...ELEVEN YEARS...
AND IF ALL OF THIS COMES TOGETHER...COULD SERIOUSLY PUT THAT STREAK
IN JEOPARDY...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER CLIPPER THRU AROUND
SATURDAY BUT WITH THE 12Z GFS BACKING OFF A BIT ON THAT...KEPT POPS
DRY FOR NOW AND ONLY BUMPED UP SKY COVER.
Check out the highlighted text – I found that pretty stunning! I can’t believe it hasn’t been below zero in STL for 11 years. I guess we missed the fun while we lived up in central IL. And it looks like we may get a good shot of snow on Wed night/Thurs morning:
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM...IN WHICH THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CERTAINTY. THIS WILL BE A STRONG DIGGING SHORTWAVE...A CLIPPER IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD...THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE TIMING IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GENERALLY HAS SEEN DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AS WITH MOST CLIPPERS...THE KEY FEATURE IS TYPICALLY THE SFC LO TRACK. THE UKMET/DGEX/ECMWF/GEM WANT TO KEEP THIS SFC REFLECTION TO OUR N...WHICH WILL MEAN MODEST QPF...WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT S OF I-70...AND HAS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMNTS. VERY COLD SFCS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO EASILY ACCUMULATE AND NATURE OF STORM FAVORS HI LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS...PERHAPS AS HI AS 20:1. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY...AND IF THE MORE SLY GFS TRACK VERIFIES...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
Yikes! A 20:1 liquid/snow ratio is really, really high, but with cold like this, it’s not surprising. Guess we’ll have to see how the models converge over the next couple of days. Keep your eyes on the NWS HPC Winter Wx page. We’re about a day away from the storm being within the 3 day model window.